Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5921 ONT 16:04 → SFO 18:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5905 ONT 10:59 → SFO 12:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5921 SkyWest	ONT 16:04	SFO 18:03	11%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 1387 United	ONT 08:00	SFO 09:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	14%	6%	0.6%	57%
OO 5905 SkyWest	ONT 10:59	SFO 12:35	15%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON