Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1121 ONT 07:09 → SMF 08:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3100 ONT 18:56 → SMF 20:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1121 Southwest	ONT 07:09	SMF 08:39	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4416 Southwest	ONT 08:59	SMF 10:29	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2842 Southwest	ONT 11:11	SMF 12:39	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1673 Southwest	ONT 16:28	SMF 17:54	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1596 Southwest	ONT 14:54	SMF 16:22	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3100 Southwest	ONT 18:56	SMF 20:23	8%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON