Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 723 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 ORD 08:27 → ABQ 10:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2159 ORD 20:25 → ABQ 22:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 08:27	ABQ 10:30	8%	2%	0.5%	78%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ORD 10:58	ABQ 13:02	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 2068 American	ORD 11:59	ABQ 14:17	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2144 United	ORD 20:30	ABQ 22:37	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2159 American	ORD 20:25	ABQ 22:49	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON