Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1382 ORD 18:34 → ALB 21:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:01	ALB 18:11	8%	2%	0.6%	71%
AA 3420 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:59	ALB 22:51	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 11:57	ALB 15:04	11%	3%	0.5%	66%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ORD 08:18	ALB 11:25	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1634 United	ORD 14:53	ALB 18:00	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1382 United	ORD 18:34	ALB 21:35	14%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON