Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 841 ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 375 ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 841 United Flight history →	ORD 16:10	ANC 19:54	12%	3%	0.6%	62%
UA 461 United	ORD 16:03	ANC 19:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 375 American Flight history →	ORD 16:54	ANC 20:34	18%	5%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON