Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5279 ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest OO 4716 ORD 20:10 → ASE 22:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5279 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ASE 11:01	10%	3%	0.7%	64%
OO 4914 SkyWest	ORD 20:49	ASE 22:56	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 4716 SkyWest	ORD 20:10	ASE 22:13	12%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON