Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3774 at 22:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3774 ORD 22:56 → ATW 23:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 5987 ORD 18:06 → ATW 19:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3774 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:56	ATW 23:58	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
MQ 3341 Envoy	ORD 16:54	ATW 18:04	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3475 Envoy	ORD 10:02	ATW 11:00	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 5552 SkyWest	ORD 21:56	ATW 23:11	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5609 SkyWest	ORD 12:43	ATW 13:53	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5611 SkyWest	ORD 17:15	ATW 18:16	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 409 SkyWest	ORD 10:39	ATW 11:31	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 5987 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:06	ATW 19:20	19%	6%	0.7%	48%
UA 4495 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	ATW 23:23	12%	3%	8.1%	88%
UA 4479 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	ATW 15:09	21%	7%	0.0%	79%
UA 4460 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	ATW 11:43	22%	5%	0.0%	78%
UA 4475 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	ATW 14:05	24%	11%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON