Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 935 ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:56	3%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	5%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	7%	2%	0.5%	81%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:23	AUS 10:53	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2433 American	ORD 21:59	AUS 00:51	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:41	AUS 16:36	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 8132 United	ORD 20:18	AUS 23:01	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 438 American	ORD 15:03	AUS 17:50	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	18%	5%	0.7%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON