Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3963 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3963 ORD 08:02 → AVL 10:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 5637 ORD 17:59 → AVL 20:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:02	AVL 10:49	8%	2%	0.9%	86%
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:38	AVL 16:32	11%	3%	0.8%	79%
YX 4737 Republic	ORD 15:09	AVL 18:15	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5413 SkyWest	ORD 07:12	AVL 10:01	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4522 GoJet	ORD 14:02	AVL 16:52	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 5637 SkyWest	ORD 17:59	AVL 20:52	22%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON