Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1913 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1913 ORD 07:28 → BDL 10:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2165 ORD 19:53 → BDL 23:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1913 United	ORD 07:28	BDL 10:38	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 861 American Flight history →	ORD 08:19	BDL 11:33	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 1408 American Flight history →	ORD 08:45	BDL 12:08	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
UA 2195 United Flight history →	ORD 11:03	BDL 14:24	11%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 1617 United	ORD 14:39	BDL 17:55	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1616 United	ORD 18:39	BDL 21:50	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2165 American Flight history →	ORD 19:53	BDL 23:14	22%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON