Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3683 ORD 13:36 → BGR 17:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 5427 ORD 12:19 → BGR 16:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:36	BGR 17:05	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
MQ 3615 Envoy	ORD 20:47	BGR 00:30	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3731 Envoy	ORD 19:13	BGR 22:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3521 Republic	ORD 17:56	BGR 21:33	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5427 SkyWest	ORD 12:19	BGR 16:08	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON