Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6256 ORD 10:17 → BHM 12:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5004 ORD 21:10 → BHM 23:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6256 SkyWest	ORD 10:17	BHM 12:11	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 15:56	BHM 17:25	17%	4%	1.0%	66%
OO 5721 SkyWest	ORD 12:11	BHM 14:09	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5416 SkyWest	ORD 21:35	BHM 23:25	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5004 SkyWest	ORD 21:10	BHM 23:03	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON