Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 09:48, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:48	BIL 11:51	5%	1%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 14m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	5h 36m	99%	92%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:37 → BIL 12:34AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	8h 34m	99%	92%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	2h 50m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703	7h 17m	99%	90%
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	2h 57m Denver	DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	7h 42m	95%	87%
American Details →	ORD 15:45 → DFW 18:05AA 2531	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy	8h 28m	93%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 22:20 → BIL 23:30DL 2941	6h 36m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 21:23 → BIL 00:11 +1AS 2457 · flown by Horizon	9h 28m	97%	85%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17UA 1417	7h 44m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON