Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 3498 at 12:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 3498 ORD 12:44 → BNA 14:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 739 ORD 18:48 → BNA 20:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3498 Republic	ORD 12:44	BNA 14:40	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	5%	1%	0.6%	88%
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	8%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 1674 United	ORD 08:35	BNA 10:05	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2362 American	ORD 11:13	BNA 12:56	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2073 United	ORD 08:53	BNA 10:25	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1224 American	ORD 00:05	BNA 01:22	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6354 SkyWest	ORD 08:13	BNA 09:48	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 314 United	ORD 21:40	BNA 23:26	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2991 American	ORD 13:25	BNA 14:58	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4918 SkyWest	ORD 18:33	BNA 20:13	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2556 American Flight history →	ORD 21:12	BNA 22:52	14%	5%	0.6%	44%
UA 2142 United Flight history →	ORD 14:17	BNA 15:53	14%	5%	0.5%	69%
UA 1897 United	ORD 15:38	BNA 17:13	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 739 United	ORD 18:48	BNA 20:22	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON