Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2139 ORD 08:58 → BOI 11:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5290 ORD 19:45 → BOI 22:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2139 United	ORD 08:58	BOI 11:50	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	ORD 11:43	BOI 14:53	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 5290 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	BOI 22:56	13%	5%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:01 → BOI 12:16DL 2095	5h 31m	86%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON