Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4751 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4751 ORD 08:55 → BUF 11:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 564 ORD 19:59 → BUF 22:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4751 Republic	ORD 08:55	BUF 11:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 265 United	ORD 06:56	BUF 09:39	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 580 United	ORD 14:07	BUF 16:49	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	BUF 20:54	16%	5%	0.5%	66%
AA 3013 American	ORD 14:29	BUF 17:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5275 SkyWest	ORD 10:41	BUF 13:10	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	BUF 22:47	19%	6%	0.6%	57%
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON