Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3762 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3762 ORD 07:11 → BWI 10:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:11	BWI 10:24	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	BWI 09:27	5%	1%	0.5%	94%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:58	BWI 13:03	5%	1%	0.6%	78%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:32	BWI 22:42	6%	3%	0.7%	79%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:38	BWI 17:47	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:29	BWI 17:33	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:11	BWI 21:13	16%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON