Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4275 at 13:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4275 ORD 13:21 → CAE 16:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5594 ORD 18:07 → CAE 21:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:21	CAE 16:16	9%	3%	0.8%	76%
OO 5620 SkyWest	ORD 06:38	CAE 09:52	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4529 Republic	ORD 20:55	CAE 23:54	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 750 SkyWest	ORD 14:14	CAE 17:12	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:07	CAE 21:09	22%	9%	0.7%	54%
UA 4528 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:10	CAE 10:28	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4523 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:05	23%	10%	2.8%	77%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON