Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3901 ORD 13:52 → CHA 16:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5437 ORD 06:52 → CHA 09:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3901 Envoy	ORD 13:52	CHA 16:34	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3650 Envoy	ORD 20:10	CHA 22:53	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5437 SkyWest	ORD 06:52	CHA 09:34	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4596 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	CHA 09:44	8%	0%	2.7%	92%
UA 4543 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	CHA 13:16	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 14:30	CHA 17:23	31%	9%	4.2%	69%
UA 4507 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:50	CHA 20:49	36%	21%	6.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON