Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4231 at 23:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4231 ORD 23:16 → CID 00:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest OO 5399 ORD 13:31 → CID 14:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4231 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:16	CID 00:17	6%	2%	0.8%	72%
MQ 3732 Envoy	ORD 10:01	CID 11:11	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	ORD 16:16	CID 17:41	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3458 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:30	CID 19:55	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
OO 6285 SkyWest	ORD 11:39	CID 12:54	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5418 SkyWest	ORD 09:14	CID 10:43	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	ORD 10:33	CID 11:45	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5544 SkyWest	ORD 16:26	CID 17:46	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	ORD 12:23	CID 13:44	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5474 SkyWest	ORD 20:03	CID 21:15	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5399 SkyWest	ORD 13:31	CID 14:43	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON