Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1488 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1156 ORD 20:09 → CLE 22:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	4%	2%	0.5%	90%
UA 1878 United Flight history →	ORD 12:44	CLE 15:19	8%	3%	0.5%	70%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
MQ 3838 Envoy	ORD 21:28	CLE 23:58	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 08:58	CLE 11:30	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 18:10	CLE 20:45	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 4937 SkyWest	ORD 11:56	CLE 14:34	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	13%	4%	0.6%	57%
OO 4932 SkyWest	ORD 10:12	CLE 12:46	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	ORD 13:37	CLE 16:15	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 15:53	CLE 18:23	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	15%	5%	0.5%	58%
UA 1156 United	ORD 20:09	CLE 22:35	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON