Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1748 ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	3%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 07:09	CLT 10:25	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:10	CLT 17:35	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 09:10	CLT 12:19	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 411 American	ORD 08:01	CLT 10:57	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3021 American	ORD 11:46	CLT 14:43	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:12	CLT 16:11	13%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	14%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	15%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:44	CLT 19:42	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	18%	5%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON