Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 451 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 451 ORD 06:55 → CMH 09:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1278 ORD 17:51 → CMH 20:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 451 United Flight history →	ORD 06:55	CMH 09:21	3%	2%	0.5%	87%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:34	CMH 10:01	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:20	CMH 11:44	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	5%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:55	CMH 23:33	6%	3%	0.6%	72%
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 12:56	CMH 15:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4683 Republic	ORD 12:02	CMH 14:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6311 SkyWest	ORD 07:10	CMH 09:33	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 10:56	CMH 13:16	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:22	CMH 17:42	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 2063 United	ORD 10:38	CMH 13:04	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3917 Envoy	ORD 17:38	CMH 19:59	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	10%	3%	0.5%	69%
OO 5304 SkyWest	ORD 16:43	CMH 19:08	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	13%	4%	0.5%	67%
UA 1278 United	ORD 17:51	CMH 20:16	15%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON