Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3394 ORD 08:25 → COU 09:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4534 ORD 21:37 → COU 22:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3394 Envoy	ORD 08:25	COU 09:48	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:21	COU 20:48	10%	3%	0.7%	59%
MQ 3398 Envoy	ORD 16:40	COU 18:03	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 5614 SkyWest	ORD 09:02	COU 10:27	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4546 GoJet	ORD 13:15	COU 14:31	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
G7 4534 GoJet	ORD 21:37	COU 22:57	15%	3%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON