Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3680 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3680 ORD 08:17 → CVG 10:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 704 ORD 14:49 → CVG 16:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3680 Envoy	ORD 08:17	CVG 10:38	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1970 United	ORD 07:01	CVG 09:32	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:24	CVG 18:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4455 Republic	ORD 22:27	CVG 00:41	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:46	CVG 14:03	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:27	CVG 20:53	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	11%	3%	0.7%	74%
OO 5215 SkyWest	ORD 08:51	CVG 11:12	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1223 United	ORD 21:47	CVG 00:10	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 13:07	CVG 15:28	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 11:04	CVG 13:12	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 17:37	CVG 19:55	19%	5%	0.6%	65%
AA 1007 American	ORD 21:30	CVG 23:40	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 704 SkyWest	ORD 14:49	CVG 16:59	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON