Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4494 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4494 ORD 06:12 → DCA 09:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 489 ORD 17:11 → DCA 20:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4494 Republic	ORD 06:12	DCA 09:34	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4468 Republic	ORD 06:20	DCA 09:29	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:56	DCA 10:12	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2997 American	ORD 07:09	DCA 10:26	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:19	DCA 10:10	8%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:52	DCA 12:00	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 202 United	ORD 09:03	DCA 12:06	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 09:50	DCA 12:55	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 09:58	DCA 12:54	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:22	DCA 13:28	9%	3%	0.6%	61%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	10%	4%	0.5%	69%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	11%	4%	0.5%	65%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	13%	5%	0.5%	56%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	13%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:55	14%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	15%	6%	0.5%	50%
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:15	DCA 20:22	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 789 American	ORD 13:07	DCA 16:11	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 20:55	DCA 23:59	15%	6%	0.7%	58%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:54	DCA 17:59	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:45	DCA 20:54	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 535 American	ORD 20:52	DCA 23:46	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:11	DCA 20:12	19%	7%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON