Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1387 ORD 18:52 → DEN 20:37 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:41	2%	1%	0.5%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	4%	1%	0.5%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:55	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
MQ 3964 Envoy	ORD 06:58	DEN 08:51	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1225 American	ORD 08:09	DEN 09:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United	ORD 08:31	DEN 10:11	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	10%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:41	DEN 15:27	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2857 United	ORD 10:56	DEN 12:34	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	11%	4%	0.5%	58%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	DEN 11:18	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2809 United	ORD 12:48	DEN 14:29	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	14%	4%	0.5%	61%
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 20:09	DEN 21:54	14%	4%	0.5%	75%
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:41	DEN 08:23	15%	3%	0.8%	71%
AA 2001 American	ORD 22:53	DEN 00:36	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 22:02	DEN 23:32	15%	3%	0.5%	71%
AA 1277 American	ORD 12:28	DEN 14:06	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:26	DEN 18:02	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:13	DEN 16:53	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 18:52	DEN 20:37	19%	5%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON