Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 760 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 760 ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2499 ORD 17:19 → DFW 19:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	6%	2%	0.5%	82%
AA 2537 American	ORD 09:42	DFW 13:26	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	7%	2%	0.5%	79%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	DFW 13:08	8%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	9%	4%	0.5%	76%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:13	DFW 09:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	10%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	11%	5%	0.6%	65%
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:40	DFW 22:03	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:02	DFW 08:28	12%	4%	0.9%	60%
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:10	DFW 14:38	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	13%	4%	0.5%	68%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:35	DFW 16:57	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:19	DFW 13:43	14%	3%	0.6%	41%
AA 1459 American	ORD 10:23	DFW 12:43	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2451 American	ORD 14:00	DFW 16:26	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:28	DFW 21:05	15%	6%	0.7%	41%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:09	DFW 23:29	15%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:05	DFW 17:32	16%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 15:45	DFW 18:05	19%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:19	DFW 19:42	20%	5%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON