Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4769 at 15:57 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4769 ORD 15:57 → DSM 17:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4933 ORD 12:31 → DSM 13:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4769 Republic	ORD 15:57	DSM 17:17	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 466 United	ORD 09:19	DSM 10:26	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1658 United	ORD 13:44	DSM 15:03	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:20	DSM 17:41	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:44	DSM 23:59	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
OO 4955 SkyWest	ORD 07:21	DSM 08:41	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DSM 22:56	15%	5%	0.5%	60%
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:14	DSM 12:33	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4659 SkyWest	ORD 22:01	DSM 23:24	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4890 SkyWest	ORD 17:42	DSM 19:08	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:31	DSM 13:45	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON