Today: YX 3632 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet today YX 3632 ORD 09:11 → DTW 11:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4885 ORD 19:23 → DTW 21:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3632 Republic	ORD 09:11	DTW 11:47	7%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:33	DTW 15:54	10%	2%	0.3%	86%
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 09:03	DTW 11:28	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:25	DTW 12:45	11%	2%	0.3%	91%
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:31	DTW 17:56	13%	5%	0.1%	no record
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	13%	6%	0.2%	77%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	14%	3%	0.1%	78%
9E 5327 Endeavor	ORD 11:19	DTW 13:31	14%	3%	0.1%	no record
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 12:19	DTW 14:44	14%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 349 United	ORD 21:29	DTW 23:54	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 17:44	DTW 20:18	15%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 12:49	DTW 15:16	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 20:09	DTW 22:32	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:41	16%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:07	DTW 20:32	16%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	21%	4%	0.2%	71%
OO 4983 SkyWest	ORD 19:14	DTW 21:37	24%	8%	0.2%	no record
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 19:23	DTW 21:43	24%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON