tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 3634 at 10:34, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3634 Republic ORD 10:34 ECP 12:58 14% 3% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:11 → ATL 21:19DL 2738 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 5h 26m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:40 → ECP 18:50DL 2494 5h 06m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 4h 52m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:43AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 1h 35m Houston IAH 12:11 → ECP 14:04UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 29m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 10:55 → ECP 11:42AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 35m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:00 → DFW 17:46AA 2429 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:59 → ECP 20:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 5h 59m 87% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:45 → DFW 18:05AA 2531 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:59 → ECP 20:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 5h 14m 56% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON