tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3631 Republic ORD 15:37 ELP 18:07 9% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 21:26 ELP 23:56 14% 2% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 41m Denver DEN 11:23 → ELP 13:19UA 2128 8h 19m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 8h 50m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 2h 54m Houston IAH 14:45 → ELP 16:02UA 6217 · flown by Mesa 8h 11m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:31 → IAH 17:30UA 2062 2h 18m Houston IAH 19:48 → ELP 21:14UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 43m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:18 → PHX 07:10AA 769 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 08:55 → ELP 11:36AA 3203 7h 18m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 8h 06m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:55 → ELP 11:59AA 1658 7h 59m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 1h 15m Houston IAH 16:55 → ELP 18:12UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 32m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → ORD 13:29 → LAS 15:26F9 3647 56m Las Vegas LAS 16:22 → ELP 19:19F9 3450 6h 50m 75% 62%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:32 → DFW 20:01AA 2499 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:54 → ELP 21:54AA 1514 5h 22m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON