Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2427 at 09:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2427 United Flight history →	ORD 09:30	EUG 12:12	11%	3%	0.5%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	8h 57m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	80%
United Details →	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 16:08 → EUG 17:49UA 502	9h 24m	97%	79%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	3h 04m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	8h 48m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:20 → SAN 08:54AS 1470	1h 20m San Diego	SAN 10:14 → EUG 12:53AS 2107 · flown by Horizon	8h 33m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON