Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 06:11, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 06:11 → MIA 10:20AA 2452	1h 59m Miami	MIA 12:19 → EYW 13:32AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	6h 21m	100%	91%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 11:07 → EYW 13:28AA 1816	7h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	6h 53m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 31m	99%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 10:33 → EYW 13:36AA 1481	7h 36m	97%	86%
American Details →	ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555	2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:08 → EYW 16:58AA 1767	7h 28m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON