Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:42 am at Chicago)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 13:01, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 18:44 → FAI 21:32AS 284	11h 31m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → FAI 23:19AS 349	10h 36m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → FAI 01:32 +1AS 351	10h 50m	94%	73%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:58 → SEA 09:15AS 587	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 12:03 → FAI 14:51AS 230	10h 53m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 47m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON