Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1421 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	ORD 06:49	FLL 11:12	6%	2%	0.6%	77%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	11%	3%	0.7%	76%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	14%	3%	0.8%	68%
UA 1294 United	ORD 12:40	FLL 16:54	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 463 United	ORD 17:46	FLL 21:45	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:00	FLL 20:58	25%	6%	0.8%	62%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	25%	9%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON