Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 20:11, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 5470 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:03	GEG 12:03	16%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 677 American Flight history →	ORD 11:10	GEG 13:17	16%	3%	0.6%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:01 → GEG 11:39DL 814	8h 09m	98%	89%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:35UA 295	8h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	10h 06m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06DL 2418	7h 12m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 27m	95%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:07 → GEG 11:57AA 1381	8h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest	8h 15m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 10:50 → GEG 12:11DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 15:45 → DFW 18:05AA 2531	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → GEG 20:34AA 2757	6h 49m	65%	49%
Alaska Details →	ORD 20:11 → SEA 22:26AS 337	48m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → GEG 00:00 +1AS 1382	5h 49m	60%	45%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	51m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → GEG 12:31AS 454	6h 29m	61%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON