Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3455 at 13:29 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3455 ORD 13:29 → GRR 15:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3177 ORD 20:51 → GRR 22:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3455 Envoy	ORD 13:29	GRR 15:38	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 5784 SkyWest	ORD 06:04	GRR 08:06	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6454 SkyWest	ORD 06:50	GRR 08:52	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	GRR 12:50	7%	3%	0.5%	89%
AA 6365 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:13	GRR 09:23	7%	2%	0.7%	50%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:10	GRR 19:20	8%	3%	0.6%	62%
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:40	GRR 00:34	9%	2%	0.8%	68%
UA 2751 United	ORD 12:32	GRR 14:36	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5568 SkyWest	ORD 09:08	GRR 11:10	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 19:14	GRR 21:22	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5567 SkyWest	ORD 14:50	GRR 16:55	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:45	GRR 18:52	14%	4%	0.7%	58%
UA 1819 United Flight history →	ORD 22:05	GRR 00:07	15%	5%	0.5%	68%
UA 2472 United	ORD 20:04	GRR 22:08	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 3177 American	ORD 20:51	GRR 22:53	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4598 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	GRR 14:55	22%	15%	0.0%	78%
UA 4592 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 05:59	GRR 08:07	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
UA 4417 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	GRR 18:58	29%	12%	11.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON