Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4144 ORD 08:01 → GSO 10:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest G7 4565 ORD 14:33 → GSO 17:28 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:01	GSO 10:56	6%	1%	0.7%	95%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:17	GSO 18:17	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
G7 4539 GoJet	ORD 06:55	GSO 09:49	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:40	GSO 21:47	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
G7 4502 GoJet	ORD 19:11	GSO 22:07	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4565 GoJet	ORD 14:33	GSO 17:28	15%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON