Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4160 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4160 ORD 08:11 → GSP 10:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 636 ORD 18:09 → GSP 21:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:11	GSP 10:57	6%	2%	0.7%	100%
MQ 4002 Envoy	ORD 09:46	GSP 12:28	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3668 Envoy	ORD 19:17	GSP 22:12	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:04	GSP 17:52	10%	2%	0.7%	66%
UA 5403 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GSP 17:00	11%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 636 United	ORD 18:09	GSP 21:00	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON