Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4132 ORD 08:28 → HSV 10:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6352 ORD 10:02 → HSV 11:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4132 Envoy	ORD 08:28	HSV 10:10	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4986 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:50	HSV 00:33	13%	5%	0.7%	64%
G7 4481 GoJet	ORD 10:59	HSV 12:50	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 4500 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 20:11	HSV 22:02	14%	4%	0.9%	73%
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:02	HSV 11:51	16%	4%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON