Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2277 ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 304 ORD 19:57 → IAD 22:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1486 United	ORD 10:49	IAD 13:45	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1128 United	ORD 13:06	IAD 16:13	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1922 United	ORD 22:07	IAD 01:10	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:55	IAD 17:51	10%	3%	0.5%	73%
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	13%	4%	0.5%	57%
UA 304 United	ORD 19:57	IAD 22:52	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON