Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1172 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1172 ORD 05:32 → IAH 08:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1496 ORD 16:53 → IAH 19:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1172 United	ORD 05:32	IAH 08:29	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:31	IAH 09:25	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:45	IAH 13:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:40	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 06:52	IAH 09:49	10%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	IAH 17:22	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	14%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	15%	4%	0.6%	56%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:14	16%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 1921 United	ORD 17:43	IAH 20:16	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:53	IAH 21:32	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:02	IAH 23:46	20%	6%	0.7%	53%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:45	IAH 13:23	22%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:08	IAH 17:51	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:13	IAH 15:40	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 16:53	IAH 19:25	28%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON