Today: MQ 3538 at 20:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet today MQ 3538 ORD 20:14 → ICT 22:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4999 ORD 10:06 → ICT 12:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3538 Envoy	ORD 20:14	ICT 22:27	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3698 Envoy	ORD 21:01	ICT 23:15	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 12:45	ICT 14:42	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6287 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:24	ICT 17:44	16%	6%	0.6%	60%
UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	16%	6%	0.4%	77%
OO 5398 SkyWest	ORD 15:38	ICT 17:37	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ORD 15:48	ICT 17:51	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 424 United	ORD 21:23	ICT 23:21	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 10:06	ICT 12:23	22%	8%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON