Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 6239 at 10:30, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6239 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:30	IDA 12:49	17%	6%	0.5%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	2h 50m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 20m	99%	88%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → IDA 11:55AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	7h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:16 → IDA 12:25DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	91%	87%
United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 24m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 12:34 → IDA 15:32AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	91%	76%
American Details →	ORD 15:00 → DFW 17:47AA 2429	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	8h 11m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON