Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3970 ORD 08:17 → ILM 11:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 4437 ORD 20:36 → ILM 23:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:17	ILM 11:28	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
MQ 4020 Envoy	ORD 14:04	ILM 17:20	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4437 Republic	ORD 20:36	ILM 23:49	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON