Today: AA 4740 at 22:29 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet today AA 4740 ORD 22:29 → IND 00:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 2418 ORD 17:01 → IND 19:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:29	IND 00:52	6%	2%	0.7%	66%
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:47	IND 15:03	9%	3%	0.2%	81%
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:28	IND 14:43	10%	3%	0.2%	87%
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 15:35	IND 17:50	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:45	IND 20:00	11%	3%	0.2%	76%
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:12	IND 22:32	11%	3%	0.3%	76%
YX 3693 Republic	ORD 21:26	IND 23:41	11%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 4455 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:44	IND 22:59	11%	4%	0.3%	83%
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:37	IND 16:54	13%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 3053 American	ORD 17:15	IND 19:24	23%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 2418 American	ORD 17:01	IND 19:07	26%	9%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON