Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2176 ORD 09:28 → JAC 11:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2611 ORD 13:22 → JAC 15:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2176 United	ORD 09:28	JAC 11:43	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1898 American Flight history →	ORD 09:57	JAC 12:12	18%	5%	1.2%	78%
AA 2611 American	ORD 13:22	JAC 15:44	22%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON