Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 5662 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day YX 5662 ORD 06:06 → JFK 09:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2224 ORD 16:11 → JFK 19:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5662 Republic	ORD 06:06	JFK 09:33	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 07:52	JFK 11:17	6%	1%	0.6%	70%
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:25	JFK 10:42	8%	1%	0.7%	88%
B6 1006 JetBlue	ORD 11:05	JFK 14:22	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3225 American	ORD 11:21	JFK 14:37	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2485 American Flight history →	ORD 13:32	JFK 17:01	16%	4%	0.7%	65%
AA 2224 American	ORD 16:11	JFK 19:30	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:05	JFK 13:30	27%	16%	6.2%	73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:00	JFK 16:37	29%	14%	11.6%	71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON