Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1556 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1556 ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:21 → LAX 21:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	7%	2%	0.5%	80%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 1009 American	ORD 06:56	LAX 09:31	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:06	LAX 14:37	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	11%	3%	0.5%	68%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	11%	3%	0.7%	70%
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:37	LAX 12:57	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 10:20	LAX 12:35	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	13%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	14%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 18:59	LAX 21:30	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 542 United	ORD 15:18	LAX 17:45	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	15%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	15%	5%	0.5%	58%
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:44	LAX 16:05	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	16%	5%	0.5%	69%
UA 2494 United	ORD 16:47	LAX 19:12	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	19%	6%	0.6%	59%
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:08	LAX 23:26	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	23%	6%	0.7%	59%
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:21	LAX 21:45	23%	6%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON